{"id":246,"date":"2025-08-01T18:34:28","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T18:34:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/assetinvesting.com\/?p=246"},"modified":"2025-08-01T18:34:28","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T18:34:28","slug":"the-naked-gun-movie-box-office","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/the-naked-gun-movie-box-office\/","title":{"rendered":"AI Predicts The Naked Gun Box Office"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"model-response-message-contentr_227227818bf53ac2\" class=\"markdown markdown-main-panel tutor-markdown-rendering stronger enable-updated-hr-color\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>Here are our box office predictions for <i>The Naked Gun<\/i>.<\/p>\n<p>Opening Weekend (Domestic): $28.5 Million<\/p>\n<p>Opening Weekend (Global): $71 Million<\/p>\n<p>Total Box Office (Domestic): $100 Million<\/p>\n<p>Total Box Office (Global): $250 Million<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Naked Gun Box Office: A deep dive into our forecast \ud83d\udd75\ufe0f\u200d\u2642\ufe0f<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Frank Drebin is back, and this time he looks a lot like Liam Neeson. The remake of the classic 1988 slapstick comedy <i>The Naked Gun<\/i> opens today, August 1st, 2025, in 3,344 theaters across the US. The big question for movie stock traders is whether this blend of a beloved, but old, IP with an action star taking a comedic turn can deliver the goods at the box office.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ve run the numbers, analyzed the market, and built a model to project its performance. Let&#8217;s break it down.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>The Comps: Charting a Course with Comedy Remakes \ud83d\udcc8<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>To build a solid prediction, we first need to look at comparable films (&#8220;comps&#8221;). We&#8217;re focusing on modern comedy remakes and star-driven action-comedies.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b><i>21 Jump Street<\/i> (2012):<\/b> The gold standard for R-rated comedy remakes. It opened to $36.3M and legged it out to a $138.4M domestic total, proving a dormant IP could be a smash hit.<\/li>\n<li><b><i>The Lost City<\/i> (2022):<\/b> A recent PG-13 action-comedy with big star power (Sandra Bullock, Channing Tatum). It opened to $30.5M and finished with a solid $105.3M domestic run.<\/li>\n<li><b><i>Free Guy<\/i> (2021):<\/b> Another PG-13 action-comedy that outperformed expectations in a tricky market, opening to $28.4M and finishing with an impressive $121.6M domestic.<\/li>\n<li><b><i>Baywatch<\/i> (2017):<\/b> A cautionary tale. Despite huge stars, this R-rated remake fumbled its opening ($18.5M) and barely recovered, finishing with just $58.1M domestically.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These comps show a target opening weekend in the <b>$28M &#8211; $35M<\/b> range for a successful launch. They also highlight the importance of tone and audience reception.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Market Factors &amp; IP Strength \ud83e\uddd0<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s not just about the movie; it&#8217;s about the market it&#8217;s entering.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Release Date:<\/b> Early August is a decent spot. The summer blockbuster rush has peaked, leaving room for a new comedy to find its audience without being crushed by a superhero tentpole.<\/li>\n<li><b>Star Power:<\/b> Liam Neeson is a globally recognized star. While he&#8217;s known for action, his turn in a broad comedy is the film&#8217;s biggest marketing hook and its biggest risk. Will audiences buy &#8220;Taken&#8221; star Liam Neeson as the bumbling Frank Drebin? His international appeal is a huge asset.<\/li>\n<li><b>IP Recognition:<\/b> <i>The Naked Gun<\/i> is iconic&#8230; to Gen X and older Millennials. The challenge for Paramount Pictures is convincing younger audiences who have never heard of Leslie Nielsen or the Zucker-Abrahams-Zucker style of rapid-fire, visual-gag comedy to show up. A PG-13 rating helps broaden its potential audience.<\/li>\n<li><b>The Director:<\/b> Akiva Schaffer of The Lonely Island is at the helm. This signals a sharp, joke-dense film, but his previous directorial efforts (<i>Hot Rod<\/i>, <i>Popstar<\/i>) were critical darlings, not box office titans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Building the Model: From PTA to Global Gross \ud83e\udd13<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Now for the fun part. Let&#8217;s show our work on how we got to our final numbers.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><b>Step 1: Domestic Opening Weekend<\/b><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We project a Per-Theater Average (PTA) is the key first step. Given the comps and the film&#8217;s specific variables, we&#8217;re forecasting a PTA of approximately <b>$8,500<\/b>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"math-block\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">PTA<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">\u00d7<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Theater\u00a0Count<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Opening\u00a0Weekend\u00a0(Domestic)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"math-block\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\">$8<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">500<\/span><span class=\"mbin\">\u00d7<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\">3<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">344<\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\">$28<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">424<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">000<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p>We&#8217;re rounding this to a final projection of <b>$28.5 million<\/b>. This would be a very solid start, right in line with <i>Free Guy<\/i> and <i>The Lost City<\/i>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><b>Step 2: Total Domestic Gross<\/b><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Next, we apply a multiplier to the opening weekend figure to forecast the film&#8217;s total domestic run. Comedies that land well with audiences can have great legs. We are projecting a <b>3.5x multiplier<\/b>, assuming decent reviews and positive word-of-mouth.<\/p>\n<div class=\"math-block\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Opening\u00a0Weekend<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">\u00d7<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Multiplier<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Total\u00a0Gross\u00a0(Domestic)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"math-block\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\">$28.5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathnormal\">M<\/span><span class=\"mbin\">\u00d7<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\">3.5<\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\">$99<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">750<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">000<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p>This puts the film just shy of the coveted nine-figure mark. We&#8217;ll round this up to <b>$100 million domestic<\/b>, a huge psychological win and a clear success.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><b>Step 3: Total Global Gross<\/b><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Finally, we project the global take. Slapstick comedy often translates well overseas, and Liam Neeson is a major international draw. We are forecasting a <b>40% domestic \/ 60% international<\/b> split, similar to other action-heavy comedies.<\/p>\n<div class=\"math-block\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"mord text\">Domestic Percentage\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"\"><span class=\"mord text\">Total\u00a0Domestic\u00a0Gross<\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Total\u00a0Gross\u00a0(Global)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"math-block\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"\">0.40 <\/span><span class=\"\">$100<span class=\"mord mathnormal\">M<\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\">$250<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">000<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">000<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<p>This gives us a final worldwide prediction of <b>$250 million<\/b>. From this, we can also estimate the global opening weekend.<\/p>\n<div class=\"math-block\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"mord text\">Domestic Percentage\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"\"><span class=\"mord text\">Domestic\u00a0Opening<\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">Global\u00a0Opening<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"math-block\"><span class=\"katex-display\"><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"\">0.40 <\/span><span class=\"\">$28.5<span class=\"mord mathnormal\">M<\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">\u2248<\/span><\/span><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\">$71<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">000<\/span><span class=\"mpunct\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord\">000<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Final Verdict &amp; Stock Recommendation \u2705<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Our analysis points to a successful launch for <i>The Naked Gun<\/i>. The combination of a known IP, a bankable star trying something new, and a favorable release date should lead to strong results both at home and abroad. While it may not reach the comedic heights of <i>21 Jump Street<\/i>, it&#8217;s poised to be a profitable studio comedy.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here are our box office predictions for The Naked Gun. Opening Weekend (Domestic): $28.5 Million Opening Weekend (Global): $71 Million Total Box Office (Domestic): $100 Million Total Box Office (Global): $250 Million &nbsp; Naked Gun Box Office: A deep dive into our forecast \ud83d\udd75\ufe0f\u200d\u2642\ufe0f &nbsp; Frank Drebin is back, and this time he looks a &#8230; <a title=\"AI Predicts The Naked Gun Box Office\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/the-naked-gun-movie-box-office\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about AI Predicts The Naked Gun Box Office\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":263,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[151],"tags":[150,152,175,176],"class_list":["post-246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hollywood-stock-exchange","tag-hollywood-stock-exchange","tag-hsx","tag-liam-neeson","tag-the-naked-gun"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=246"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/263"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}