{"id":266,"date":"2025-08-01T23:55:59","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T23:55:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/assetinvesting.com\/?p=266"},"modified":"2025-08-01T23:55:59","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T23:55:59","slug":"the-bad-guys-2-box-office-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/the-bad-guys-2-box-office-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bad Guys 2 Box Office Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

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Here are our box office predictions for The Bad Guys 2<\/i>.<\/p>\n

Opening Weekend (Domestic): $32.5 Million<\/p>\n

Opening Weekend (Global): $83 Million<\/p>\n

Total Box Office (Domestic): $127 Million<\/p>\n

Total Box Office (Global): $325 Million<\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bad Guys 2: A deep dive into our forecast \ud83d\udc3a<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Wolf Pack is back! DreamWorks Animation’s much-anticipated sequel, The Bad Guys 2<\/i>, hits theaters today, August 1st, 2025. The 2022 original was a breakout hit, blending slick heist-caper action with a unique, stylized animation that won over critics and audiences alike. Now, the question for traders on the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) is whether the sequel can build on that success.<\/p>\n

With the current stock trading at H$70.77 (implying a final domestic gross of $70.77 million), we’ve crunched the numbers to see if this stock is a steal or a swindle.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

The Comps: The Power of a Beloved Sequel \ud83d\ude80<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The most important “comp” is, of course, the original film. But we can also learn a lot from how other successful animated sequels have performed.<\/p>\n

    \n
  • The Bad Guys<\/i> (2022):<\/b> The original opened to a solid $23.95M and showcased incredible legs, multiplying its opening over four times to a $97.4M domestic finish. It earned a stellar “A” CinemaScore, confirming its broad audience appeal.<\/li>\n
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish<\/i> (2022):<\/b> This film is the poster child for a sequel surpassing all expectations. It demonstrated that a high-quality, well-marketed animated sequel can have phenomenal staying power, earning a domestic total ($186M) over 15 times its initial weekend.<\/li>\n
  • Sing 2<\/i> (2021):<\/b> Another DreamWorks\/Illumination sequel that showed impressive legs. It built on the goodwill of the original and legged out to a massive $162.8M domestic total.<\/li>\n
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse<\/i> (2023):<\/b> While a superhero film, its performance as an animated sequel is key. It saw its opening weekend explode from the original’s $35.4M to a stunning $120.7M, proving that a beloved first film can create a massive, built-in audience for its follow-up.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    These comps show a clear pattern: audiences show up in greater numbers for sequels to animated films they love.<\/p>\n

    \n

     <\/p>\n

    Market Factors & Inherent Strengths \ud83d\udc8e<\/h3>\n

     <\/p>\n

      \n
    • Release Date:<\/b> August 1st is the perfect hunting ground for this crew. It’s positioned as the must-see family film for the remainder of the summer season, with minimal direct competition.<\/li>\n
    • Built-In Goodwill:<\/b> The first film was a word-of-mouth hit. Families, kids, and animation fans who discovered it on streaming or late in its theatrical run are now a locked-in opening weekend audience for the sequel.<\/li>\n
    • The “Cool” Factor:<\/b> The Bad Guys<\/i> stands out. Its snappy, “Ocean’s Eleven”-for-kids vibe and its graphic, anime-influenced visual style are major assets that differentiate it from more traditional CGI animation. We expect the marketing to lean heavily into this.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n

       <\/p>\n

      Building the Model: Calculating the Heist \ud83e\udd13<\/h3>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Here\u2019s how we forecast this box office score, step-by-step.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Step 1: Domestic Opening Weekend<\/b><\/h4>\n

       <\/p>\n

      A sequel to a film as well-received as The Bad Guys<\/i> (A CinemaScore!) almost always opens higher than the original. We are projecting a 35% increase<\/b> over the first film’s $24M debut.<\/p>\n

      Original\u00a0Opening<\/span><\/span>\u00d7<\/span><\/span>(<\/span>1<\/span>+<\/span><\/span>Growth\u00a0Percentage<\/span><\/span>)<\/span>=<\/span><\/span>New\u00a0Opening\u00a0Weekend<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
      $24<\/span>,<\/span>000<\/span>,<\/span>000<\/span>\u00d7<\/span><\/span>1.35<\/span>=<\/span><\/span>$32<\/span>,<\/span>400<\/span>,<\/span>000<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

      We’ll round that to a confident projection of $32.5 million<\/b> for the domestic opening.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Step 2: Total Domestic Gross<\/b><\/h4>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Animated films that score well with audiences have famously long legs at the box office. The original had a superb 4.07x multiplier. While sequels can sometimes be more front-loaded, we expect another stellar run. We are projecting a powerful 3.9x multiplier<\/b>.<\/p>\n

      Opening\u00a0Weekend<\/span><\/span>\u00d7<\/span><\/span>Multiplier<\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>Total\u00a0Gross\u00a0(Domestic)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
      $32.5<\/span>M<\/span>\u00d7<\/span><\/span>3.9<\/span>=<\/span><\/span>$126<\/span>,<\/span>750<\/span>,<\/span>000<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

      This lands our final domestic gross projection at $127 million<\/b>.<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      Step 3: Total Global Gross<\/b><\/h4>\n

       <\/p>\n

      The first film had a roughly 39% domestic \/ 61% international<\/b> box office split. We expect the sequel to perform similarly, with the brand’s international appeal growing.<\/p>\n

      Domestic Percentage\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Total\u00a0Domestic\u00a0Gross<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>=<\/span><\/span>Total\u00a0Gross\u00a0(Global)<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
      0.39<\/span>$127M<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u2248<\/span><\/span>$325<\/span>,<\/span>641<\/span>,<\/span>000<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

      Our model projects a massive $325 million<\/b> global haul. Based on this split, we can also estimate the global opening weekend to be around $83 million<\/b>.<\/p>\n

      \n

       <\/p>\n

      Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) Analysis & Recommendation \ud83d\udcb5<\/h3>\n

       <\/p>\n

        \n
      • Current HSX Price:<\/b> H$70.77<\/li>\n
      • Implied Domestic Gross:<\/b> $70.77 Million<\/li>\n
      • Our Projected Domestic Gross:<\/b> $127 Million<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Our analysis indicates that the current HSX trading price dramatically undervalues the box office potential of The Bad Guys 2<\/i>. The H$70.77 price suggests the film will earn significantly less<\/i> than its predecessor ($97.4M), a scenario that runs contrary to all available data for well-liked animated sequels. Our projection of $127M is nearly 80% higher than the market’s current expectation. <\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The Wolf Pack is back! DreamWorks Animation’s much-anticipated sequel, The Bad Guys 2, hits theaters today, August 1st, 2025. The 2022 original was a breakout hit, blending slick heist-caper action with a unique, stylized animation that won over critics and audiences alike. Now, the question for traders on the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) is whether the sequel can build on that success.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":267,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[151],"tags":[150,152,177],"class_list":["post-266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hollywood-stock-exchange","tag-hollywood-stock-exchange","tag-hsx","tag-the-bad-guys-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/267"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukeandleaya.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}